XE hourly rates at 2014-07-30 21:00 UTC …read more
Yesterday was very much a day of mixed data, with Japan getting the day off to a bad start with weaker export figures only for Chinese manufacturing data to offset it. This was followed by better than expected Eurozone PMIs but a bad month of retail sales for the UK, before being wrapped up with strong jobless figures but weak housing and manufacturing data from the US. It’s hardly surprising then that traders were left struggling for direction, with the S&P once again scraping its way to another finish while the Dow recorded marginal losses.
In Europe, indices were comfortably in the green thanks largely to the PMI readings for July which far exceeded expectations. Today we’re expecting to see a slightly weaker start, as indices pare some of yesterday’s gains ahead of some key data releases and another batch of earnings.
On the data front we have the German IFO business climate survey for July. As it stands, analyst expectations are for another decline in the number to 109.4. However, following yesterday’s PMI readings I imagine most analysts will have raised their expectations for this and I think we’re likely to get a comfortable beat here. The only question now is how much more has been priced into the markets.
I think temporary factors such as the world cup win and the good weather will have played into the stronger PMI readings yesterday and could therefore feed into today’s number. It now just remains to be seen whether this can produce a more long term boost to confidence or whether the end of the world cup signalled the end of this brief economic boost.
It’s then over to the UK for the first estimate of second quarter GDP. This is expected to be 0.8% for the quarter and 3.1% compared to …read more