Bitcoin Flat After Failed Break Below $212

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Bitcoin is trading almost flat today after an earlier unsuccessful foray below the $212 low. The initial decline took BTC/USD to $208 flat until the bulls took over and ran up the pair back up to the open price of $218 per coin. We are currently trading at $218.17 on BTC-E, just $1.83 dollars away from the $220 daily high. Prices on other exchanges are not far off with OKCoin at $220 and BitStamp at $224.

The false break below the $212 range low shouldn’t come as a surprise to our readers. In our daily roundup yesterday we said that the duration of the range (3 days) was too short to mark $235 & $212 as potential breakout points: ”Thus a rally beyond $235 may not go very far and the same goes for a decline below $212. This is of course barring any surprise news announcements. A positive or negative news catalyst may be needed to define a new direction for BTC.”

According to DCMagnates, New York law firm Tripp Levy PLLC is investigating Coinbase for allegedly making false and misleading statements during the launch of its new Exchange. In initial blog posts tied to the launch, Coinbase says: ”We’re happy to announce Coinbase Exchange, the first regulated bitcoin exchange based in the U.S. ” One day after the launch, the California regulator issued a press release to media outlets, clarifying that Coinbase is neither regulated nor licensed in the state. California does not currently require licenses for cryptocurrency firms. The same situation is present in New York as well, although the state is expected to rollout their new ”BitLicense” in the first quarter of 2015.

Tripp Levy blames the drop in prices on …read more

Bitcoin Barely Changed, Gemini Waits for BitLicense

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Bitcoin looks set to close unchanged on the day. After opening at $221.21, everyone’s favorite virtual currency fell to a low of $216.69. From here we had a brief rally that hit $227 around mid-day. But as the day progressed bitcoin gave up all the gains and traded down to the day’s open at $221 (BTC-E). As usual, prices are trading at a slight premium on OKCoin at $222 and BitStamp at $226. The new Coinbase exchange is quoting prices inline with BitStamp ($226).

The top of the range stands at yesterday’s high of $235. The low was made on January 29th at $212. However three days is too short of a time to mark these extremes as potential breakout points. Thus a rally beyond $235 may not go very far and the same goes for a decline below $212. This is of course barring any surprise news announcements. A positive or negative news catalyst may be needed to define a new direction for BTC.

In a interview for Coindesk, the Winklevoss twins talked about their upcoming exchange Gemini. From a trader’s perspective however, there is very little new information. The twins spent most of the interview talking about regulation. They stressed the fact that they will launch the exchange only when it is fully licensed. The brothers are waiting for the passing of the NYDFS BitLicense proposal: ”We’re not launching until we’re licensed. Most people are taking a different approach, but we’re not interested in operating without a license.”

”We’ve worked very hard to understand what it would take to be a fully licensed, regulated entity in all the states, and we’re making sure we get this right. We’re not pretending we’re kids that don’t have …read more

Weekly Indicators: consumer confidence soars, housing improves edition

In the rear view mirror, Q4 GDP grew at +2.6% annualized, a deceleration from Q2 and Q3. Monthly December reports reported in the last week included two series showing soaring consumer confidence, improved new home sales, a moderation in the increase in home prices, positive and increased Chicago manufacturing, and a significant increase in unit labor costs. The one big negative was a decline in durable goods orders.

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Weekly Trading Forecast: NFPs and RBA Rate Decision Key FX Catalysts This Week

Monetary policy has proven the Forex market’s top driver the past six months. That puts this week’s NFPs a market-forecasted RBA rate cut in the spotlight.

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XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 30, 2015

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Friday, though a disappointing Q4 GDP print sent yields and Wall Street lower again. Despite that, EUR-USD headed down to the 1.12 handle, following reports that Greece’s new government may not cooperate with the troika. The pairing based at 1.1282. USD-JPY meanwhile, didn’t like the sour risk backdrop, as it fell to 117.30 lows, from session highs of 117.85. USD-CAD was the biggest mover of the day, as soft GDP numbers from both sides of the border saw that pairing fly to 1.2799 highs, after opening near 1.2650. Cable traded briefly under 1.5000.

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US Dollar May Fall as Yen Gains on Disappointing US GDP Data

The US Dollar may turn lower while the Japanese Yen gains as soft US GDP data dents Fed interest rate hike bets and fuels risk aversion.

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XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 29, 2015

The dollar rallied broadly in N.Y. trade on Thursday, though it was the commodity bloc that was hit the hardest. Oil and copper prices hit new trend lows, which saw USD-CAD rally to multi-year highs of 1.2650, and AUD-USD sink to multi-year lows under 0.7240. USD-JPY moved up to near 118.50 on relatively stable yields and a moderate Wall Street Rally. EUR-USD gave back the 1.13 handle, touching 1.1279 lows, as cable skidded along just above 1.5020. On the economic front, weekly jobless claims fell to trend lows, though pending home sales missed the mark.


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Gold – Continues to Consolidate in Narrow Range Above $1280

Gold for Thursday, January 29, 2015
Gold has enjoyed a very solid last few weeks as it has surged to a five month high near $1308, before easing back a little in the last several days remaining above $1280 in the process. To start last week it had just eased back a little and steadied below the $1280 level after surging to that area and a four month high recently. It is now consolidating in a narrow range between $1290 and $1295. In the last few weeks it has been able to rally strongly from around $1170 back through the key $1200 level and to a 12 week high just above the $1240 level before its further surge higher in the last couple of weeks. Despite this recent break, the $1240 level remains key as it has provided plenty of resistance over the last few months and is now likely to play a role should gold retreat back to it.

At the beginning of last month gold eased lower away from the resistance level at $1240 yet again back down to below $1200. During the second half of November gold made repeated runs at the resistance level at $1200 failing every time, before finally breaking through strongly. Throughout the first half of November Gold enjoyed a strong resurgence back to the key $1200 level where it has met stiff resistance up until recently. Throughout the second half of October gold fell very strongly and resumed the medium term down trend falling from above $1250 back down through the key $1240 level, down below $1200 to a multi year low near $1130. It spent a few days consolidating around $1160 after the strong fall which has allowed it to rally higher in the last couple of weeks.

Earlier in October Gold ran …read more

GBPAUD Weekly Opening Range Setup- Long Scalps at Risk Sub-1.92

The rally is now approaching the 2014 highs with our long scalp bias at risk below key resistance. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels.

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XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 28, 2015

The AUD and SGD were the main shows in town, with the former spiking above 0.80 on Australian CPI data and the latter diving sharply after Singapore’s MAS unexpectedly cut the slope of monetary policy band. AUD-USD made a five-day peak of 0.8025. Australia Q4 CPI came in at 0.2% q/q, below the median 0.3%, but the core ‘trimmed mean’ — which the RBA focuses on — was above expectations at 0.7% q/q. This has dented expectations for the RBA to ease rates on Feb-3, though ourselves and others still expect a an insurance cut.

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