Bitcoin Stable, No Sign of Selling (Yet)

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Bitcoin is trading stable on Black Friday. There is no sign of large scale selling (yet). After opening at $365.58, BTC/USD fell $11 dollars to a daily low of $354 flat. But prices didn’t stay low for long and soon bitcoin staged a large $21dollar rally that topped out at $375 per coin. We are currently quoted at $369 on BTC-E.

Today is Bitcoin Black Friday. Similarly to the Black Friday event in the States, bitcoin merchants slash their prices in a bid to attract holiday shoppers. The discounts will last until Monday, with special deals to anyone paying with bitcoin. Last year the total amount of BTC sales amounted to $6 million USD. With many more merchants climbing on the bitcoin acceptance train in 2014, this year’s figure will almost certainly top that.

Because almost all merchants instantly convert all the bitcoins received as payment to cash, Black Friday may be price-negative for BTC. So far we haven’t seen any sings that point to large-scale selling. But keep in mind that Black Friday is traditionally a USA holiday and we just passed 2 PM Eastern Time, the day is still young. Another unknown factor is how bitcoin payment processor Coinbase and BitPay plan to ‘’get rid of” the bitcoins received as payment. Will they the coins on the exchanges as they come in, or spread them out over several days to limit the market impact? In addition, the selling may be partially countered by shoppers buying BTC with the intention to make use of the bitcoin specific discounts.

Last year’s event had no negative effect on BTC prices but it happened during a massive bull market for bitcoin. This time around we find ourselves in a …read more

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Crude Oil Declines after OPEC Meeting

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Quiet day sees focus upon overall market sentiment

  • Quiet day sees focus upon overall market sentiment
  • US GDP and consumer confidence paint alternate pictures
  • UK GDP ahead.

European markets are expected to move higher this morning, following a largely positive session overnight in Asia. The inability of the US markets to reach fresh highs did little to dampen investor sentiment elsewhere despite a poor consumer confidence survey as many chose to focus on the strong GDP figure and a globally accommodative monetary stance. Thus European markets are expected to open higher with the FTSE100 +40, CAC +24 and DAX +48 points.

A lack of economic releases overnight means that traders have had little to get their teeth into and for the most part this means having to tap into the overall market sentiment. The sharp increase in the rate of asset purchases in Japan last month, coupled with expectations that the ECB will move to purchase sovereign debt soon (as shown by the move lower in yields recently), means that there is an underlying feeling that whilst the previous rhetoric surrounding the markets was centred around monetary tightening, this couldn’t be further from the truth. The tumbling inflation that has been seen thanks in large part to oil prices has come at the perfect time, forcing central banks to respond by means of pushing back expectations for that first interest rate hike that everyone is speculating upon. Mark Carney played his best poker face yesterday at the inflation report hearings, stating that the next move the BoE will make is going to be a rate hike. However, we do not need to see another bout of QE to be bullish in such a low interest rate environment.

Yesterday saw very mixed messages out of the US, where a unexpected jump in Q3 GDP was somewhat undone by an equally surprising drop …read more

Bitcoin: BTC/USD Technical Analysis – 26th November 2014

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) finds itself once again fighting off the $360′s after failing to completely clear the $380′s barrier. It hit a low of $362 8h ago and is currently trading at $368 on BTC-e.

This was indeed the next stage of the head-and-shoulders pattern previously anticipated, whose arrival was pushed off by one final spike into the high $380′s.

With this pattern in formation and BTC once again knocking on the $360 support level, BTC is sitting in highly vulnerable territory and risks falling back to last week’s lows over the next 5-7 days. The decline may take longer, as BTC is uncharacteristically yet to retrace the majority of its decline into the $360′s.

Should the weak performance continue, it would be in stark contrast to the closing days of November last year, when BTC was finishing its meteoric rise to near $1100.

Prices on BTC-e are about $3 (0.8%) lower relative to peers.

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Inflation report hearing to dominate European session

  • Nikkei rises despite less dovish minutes
  • OPEC meeting expected to see oil output cut
  • German GDP expected to confirm avoidance of recession
  • BoE inflation report hearing put pressure on Carney over falling inflation.

A cautious yet positive start to the day is expected for the European markets today, following the establishment of record highs in the US and a largely positive session overnight in Asia. The largely hawkish news overnight from the BoJ minutes were to an extent brushed aside as traders instead focused upon the expansive global outlook for monetary policy. As such, European futures are pointing towards a positive open, with the FTSE100 +4, CAC +3 and DAX +17 points.

The big news overnight came from the Bank of Japan minutes, following the introduction of a heightened rate of asset purchases; from Y50 trillion per month to the current Y80 trillion. The shock in the market was highlighted by the 320 pip rise in USDJPY that day, where very few if any analysts saw the move coming. Given this, it comes as no surprise that the BoJ committee found a weak majority to carry the action through, with only 5 out of the 9 members voting to increase asset purchases. The minutes showed a great degree of anxiety over whether the benefits of an increase in asset purchases really outweighed the negatives. This narrow victory for the doves, alongside a clearly apprehensive narrative running through the committee meant that for the time being, it is unlikely we are set to see another such move in the next few months. However, with a speech from Kuroda today driving home the point that he would not hesitate to implement further QE should the Japanese economy need it, there is clearly an ultra-dovish Governor in charge at the BoJ and this can be a …read more

Bitcoin Down 1 Percent, Black Friday Deals Tomorrow

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Bitcoin is trading down 1 percent today, after a mid-day reversal erased most of the gains from yesterday&today. After opening at $376.87, BTC/USD continued the rally, eventually hitting a high of $388.99. But prices didn’t stay high for long and one hour later BTC already lost 1.5%. As the day progressed, the losses continued and we are currently trading at $372.99.

I still can’t find any news or speculation regarding the bids at the coming Bitcoin auction. As I mentioned in my article yesterday, we would likely need to see something more concrete before BTC can undertake a sustained move up.

Bitcoin Black Friday is coming up and the mainstream media and already hyping up the event! First CNBC and today ABC reported on the coming event. Last year the number of participating merchants was 600 with sales of $6 million USD. That number is expected to double to 1,200 merchants, according to the event’s founder, Jon Holmquist. The website for the event is , The list with the deals will be posted on the day before Thanksgiving (tomorrow).

It’s unclear what will be the effect of the event on the market price. Most merchants convert all of their bitcoins to cash but they do this through intermediaries like Coinbase and BitPay. Let’s assume that BTC sales will total a conservative number like $10-15 million. Will Coinbase/BitPay then imminently turn around and dump all these coins on the exchanges or will they spread it out over a few days to limit the impact? Last year’s charts are almost useless because Bitcoin Black Friday happened in the midst of a massive BTC rally. In addition, with the looming auction deadline on December 4th, BTC prices …read more

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