Bitcoin’s Fight With $350 Continues

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Bitcoin is continuing the fight with the $345-$350 support area. Earlier in the day it looked like the bears had won, after breaking past $345 prices quickly fell to a daily low of $337. But in the next 2 hours BTC/USD climbed back above $340 and few hours later prices were again flirting with the $350 figure. Here’s an updated chart.

We are now in somewhat of a stalemate with prices wedged in between two support/resistance areas. A move below today’s low at $337 will likely accelerate bitcoin’s losses. On the other hand. if BTC manages to climb and stay above the $362 resistance level (marked in the chart above), it will likely signal an end to BTC losses, at least in the short-term. To spark a new rally in the cryptocurrency however, BTC/USD will first need to take out the October 14th swing high at $408.

Let’s look at some of the support levels if bitcoin breaks $337 and continues the move lower, since this is the more likely scenario. The first potential support can be found at the $300 round figure. This is quickly followed by the October 5th swing low at $285. Lower still, the $266 figure, a high for bitcoin during most of 2013, will be strong support to falling prices.

The latest leg down in BTC/USD can not be pinned to one unexpected negative news event, unlike the two falls earlier this year with the MtGox fiasco and later with the China Ban. Several theories have been floating around about the reason behind the price declines, ranging from bitcoin mining to increased merchant adoption with a corresponding increase in consumer interest to pay with BTC. But the biggest factor may be …read more

The Canadian Cherry-picking “Anti-HFT” Payment for Order Flow Kaleidoscope

Canada’s TMX Group has just announced some changes to how it intends to operate its stock exchanges, and you should be aware of these changes whether or not you trade in Canada. The fact is, Global markets are connected, national regulatory structures are unique and disparate, and capital flows to…
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Bitcoin Bounces Off $350

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Bitcoin continued yesterday’s decline. Prices got as low as $349.11 in today’s trading session. But BTC/USD quickly bounced off the $345-$350 support area and rallied to a daily high of $359.98 soon after. After another unsuccessful attempt to break above $460 later in the day, BTC fell back down and is currently trading at $353 per coin. Here’s an updated chart of the price action on BTC-E, showing potential support and resistance levels.

The support area from $345 to $350 will be crucial going forward. A break below will likely lead to renewed losses for everyone’s favorite cryptocurrency. Below here down to $300, there is a large gap of $45 dollars where I can’t see a defined support. It’s possible that BTC/USD will find some weak support at $313 per coin. Lower still, the swing low of bitcoin’s latest decline at $285 may present some support to falling prices. On the top end, a move above $380 may stall the fall, although a break beyond $408 will be needed to jump-start a new rally.

Payment processor Payza announced that it has integrated bitcoin deposits into its system. This doesn’t mean that users will be able to hold BTC in their Payza wallets but it will now be possible to sell bitcoins for USD, for example. While there are no added fees for selling your Bitcoin, according to this Reddit comment by their representative, the exchange rate spread is currently $14 dollars wide, or 4 percent. This is higher then the usual round turn fees at bitcoin exchanges, which are around 1-2% (including the bid/ask spread).

Two months ago the company implemented withdrawals in BTC. Payza has around 10 million clients and is available across the …read more

West TX Oil up to $83 on Cut in Saudi Oil Supply

West Texas Intermediate surged from its lowest closing price in more than two years as Saudi Arabia trimmed crude oil supply in September.

Futures gained as much as 1.7 percent in New York, recording the biggest increase since Oct. 17 and erasing an earlier fall of 0.6 percent. The biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut supply to markets by 328,000 barrels a day last month, to 9.36 million barrels a day, from 9.69 million in August, according to a person with knowledge of Saudi Arabia’s oil policy.

Crude has collapsed into a bear market as producers including Saudi Arabia cut export prices. Global supplies are rising as the U.S. pumps the most in almost three decades and Russia’s output nears a post-Soviet record. OPEC needs to reduce output by 500,000 barrels a day because the market is oversupplied, Samir Kamal, Libya’s governor to the 12-member group, said yesterday.

About Stuart McPhee

Senior Currency Technical Analyst, Stuart McPhee has more than 16 years’ experience as a private trader and he specializes in technical market analysis of major currency pairs. He is the author of several bestselling trading books, most recently the fourth edition of his popular book “Trading in a Nutshell” (John Wiley), and he contributes articles to daily newsletters and blogs. He produces articles and videos on the how-tos of technical trading. Based in Australia, Stuart speaks at conferences and events worldwide. Follow on Twitter and on his Google+ profile.

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GBPJPY Long Scalps at Risk Ahead of UK GDP- 174 in View

A weekly opening range break on GBPJPY has triggered long-scalps ahead of tomorrow’s key event risk. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels.

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New Zealand says mind the “big win scams!” FX Ponzi schemes on regulatory radar

New Zealand’s FMA has taken a very active stance in warning potential customers about the perils of dubious forex trading software and schemes which promise unrealistically high returns as more established regulators turn a blind eye.

For quite some time, New Zealand has been widely regarded with… …read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 22, 2014

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, gaining ground against the euro, CHF and yen, while stumbling against the euro, and losing ground to the CAD following a not-so-dovish BoC policy statement. Talk of the ECB’s plan to buy corporate bonds kept pressure on the euro, while USD-JPY held over 107 after U.S. CPI data, firmer Yields and a morning Wall Street Rally. Stocks later turned lowed, which took dollar-yen from its highs over 107.35, back under 107.20.


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EUR/USD Risks Larger Rebound on Slowing U.S. Inflation (CPI)

Another downtick in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may generate a larger rebound in EUR/USD as it dampens bets of seeing the Fed normalize policy sooner rather than later.
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AUD/USD Risks Bearish Break on Slowing Australia CPI- 0.8600 on Tap?

The AUD/USD may fail to retain the wedge/triangle formation from earlier this month should Australia’s 3Q Consumer Price Index (CPI) report drag on interest rate expectations.
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Oil Gains As OPEC Thinking About Supply Cut

After nearly two years without a single resignation from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet, two female ministers — appointed only last month — stepped down on the same day.

Yuko Obuchi, 40, trade and industry minister, resigned over allegations of improper use of political funds, and Justice Minister Midori Matsushima, 58, quit over claims she breached election laws. The resignations are a double blow to Abe who has made promoting women a pillar of his economic policy.

Abe’s government has enjoyed unusually stable voter approval since he took office in December 2012, helped by economic policies that have boosted the stock market and an absence of scandals. Faced with a shrinking workforce, he has sought to attract more women to paid employment, emphasized a goal of having women in 30 percent of leadership positions by 2020, and appointed women to high profile government positions.

“This is the first real bump in the road for Abe, who has been doing well, keeping support rates high even though his policies are not that popular,” said Steven Reed, professor of political science at Chuo University in Tokyo. With the resignation of the two ministers “one of his ways of distracting people from his less popular policies is no longer a distraction.”

About Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst, Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, he established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto. Follow …read more